Ibercaja raises the forecasts for Aragón, which would close 2024 with a growth of 2.5%

The Aragonese economy will grow by 2.5% in 2024, driven by the good inertia of the labor market , the resistance of companies and exports . These are the forecasts used by Ibercaja , which has improved its forecasts for this year upwards, after setting the increase in GDP in the Community at 1.7% last December, despite international tensions and political instability . that exists in the country.

However, the aging of the population can be a burden in the medium and long term, together with the problems of companies in finding certain qualified profiles . “There is more aging than in Spain and the population is growing less than in the country as a whole, although the good thing is that the unemployment rate is super low, much more than in the rest of Spain. Aragón has the second lowest rate and Teruel is the province with the least unemployment, but there is a problem with the active population and attracting talent ,” stressed the head of Economic Analysis at Ibercaja, Santiago Martínez.

Thus, Ibercaja highlights that all the favorable aspects of an economy are coming together to face the two major risk factors , such as political instability and the risk of a “ large escalation of war .” “There is less debt, employment is at its highest , companies are preserving their sales and have less debt and more treasury , with their sales more internationalized ,” said the Director of Communication at Ibercaja, Enrique Barbero, who also values ​​the resistance . particularly well” of the labor market.

“THE WORST OF INFLATION HAS ALREADY BEEN PAST”

Meanwhile, the market is still awaiting a possible mid-year reduction in interest rates , since “the worst” of inflation “has already passed”, although, of course, without seeing the Euribor again as in the past. previous levels, practically at 0%. “The interest rate cycle, which rose to maximum levels in the Euro zone and the US, will go down, but it will not reach the last cycles , 0 or 1%. There is talk that it could be 3 or 2%, which will lead to high interests in a structural way. The saver can invest without risk with some profitability,” Martínez explained.

Interest rates that, according to the head of Economic Analysis at Ibercaja, mean that the banking sector has hardly any demand for loans and mortgages , despite the fact that households are “in a very healthy moment ” and with “very high” savings levels. . “There is a lot of desire in the sector to lend more, but you have to have demand . For families we have gone from 2022 with a negative Euribor to 4%. That slows down demand,” said Martínez, who has also had an impact on the low supply of new construction housing on the market.

AN “ITALIANIZATION” OF THE ECONOMY

In any case, Ibercaja perceives a process of “Italianization” of the Spanish economy , that is, a gap between the financial and political worlds that means that, despite the constant institutional instability , the country remains on the right track . “The president takes a period of reflection and has no impact on the IBEX or the risk premium. In 2012 it went to 600 points, during the pandemic to 200, and these days it does not move from 80 points and the IBEX evolves like any other week of the year. It is evidence. Political tensions and noise do not favor the activity, but they do not impede its development , ” described the director of Communication and Institutional Relations.

THE POSSIBLE MERGER BETWEEN BBVA AND BANCO SABADELL

On the other hand, Ibercaja did not want to evaluate the news about a merger between BBVA and Banco Sabadell , although they have made it clear that it will “absolutely” disrupt their 2024/2026 Strategic Plan presented last Saturday. “We only contemplate an independent scenario, maintaining the essence of this bank. It has neither been thought of nor is it on the agenda for the next three years, as announced by the president and the CEO,” Barbero stressed.