Spain will be the country with the most deaths from heat at the end of the century

By the end of this century, Spain could become the European country with the highest number of deaths caused by heat , which could more than quadruple to over 20,000 per year , the highest figure of any country on the continent.

This projection is contained in a study published Thursday in the journal The Lancet Public Health, which highlights that deaths from high temperatures would triple in Europe as a whole by 2100 under current climate policies, with the highest rates among southern countries.

The study draws on data from 1,368 regions in 30 European countries to estimate deaths from hot and cold temperatures , and how the risks might change by 2100.

The dataset, generated by analysing the epidemiological and socioeconomic characteristics of 854 European cities with populations of more than 50,000, was used to model regional mortality risk for different age groups (20 to over 85 years).

The researchers projected deaths related to current and future temperatures for four levels of global warming (1.5, 2, 3 and 4 degrees warmer than pre-industrial times) using a combination of 11 different climate models.

The study suggests that existing regional disparities in the risk of death from hot and cold temperatures among adults will widen in the future due to climate change and population ageing.

By 2100, cold- related deaths are expected to decline slightly , while heat- related deaths are expected to increase in all parts of Europe, particularly in the southern regions. The most affected areas will be Spain, Italy, Greece and parts of France.

Currently, in Europe, approximately eight times more people die from cold (363,809 per year) than from heat (43,729), but this proportion is expected to decrease considerably by the end of the century.

COUNTRIES

The study, reported by Servimedia, predicts that in Spain there will be 20,194 deaths due to heat in 2100 in a global warming scenario of 3 ºC, compared to 4,414 annually between 1991 and 2020, which is 4.6 times more.

In absolute terms, Italy would be the second European country with the most deaths from high temperatures by the end of the century (28,285), ahead of Germany (16,913) and France (13,564).

However, the highest rates of increase are in Ireland (up 18.8% from 30 deaths today to 563 in 2100), Malta (up 7.7% from 78 to 604) and Norway (up 7.3% from 269 to 682).

Only two countries will experience slight reductions in heat-related deaths by the end of the century: Latvia (from 186 to 170) and Lithuania (from 264 to 261).

Overall, the study predicts that there will be almost 129,000 heat-related deaths in Europe by the end of the century if the planet warms by 3°C in 2100, 3% more than now. In that same scenario, deaths from cold would fall from almost 364,000 today to around 333,700 by the end of this century.

“The proportion of deaths from cold and heat will change dramatically over the course of this century, with deaths attributed to heat increasing in all parts of Europe and rising in some areas. At the same time, deaths related to cold will decline slightly overall. Our study analyses more than 1,000 regions in 30 countries, allowing us to identify the hotspots where people will be most affected in the future,” said Juan Carlos Ciscar, from the European Commission’s Joint Research Centre.

COLD

Currently, cold-related deaths are highest in Eastern Europe and the Baltic countries, and lowest in Central Europe and parts of the South, with rates ranging from 25 to 300 deaths per 100,000 people.

Heat-related deaths range from 0.6 to 47 deaths per 100,000 people, with the lowest rates in the UK and Scandinavian countries, and the highest in Croatia and the southernmost parts of the continent.

With 3°C of warming, temperature-related deaths are projected to increase by 13.5%, resulting in 55,000 more deaths each year, driven by an increase in heat-related deaths. Most deaths will occur among people aged over 85 years.

In Europe, eight times more people currently die from cold than from heat, but this proportion is projected to fall to 2.6 by the end of the century under a 3°C global warming scenario.

Under this scenario, cold-related deaths will range from 29 to 225 per 100,000 inhabitants in Europe by the end of the century. There will be moderate reductions in Eastern Europe and slight falls in parts of Germany, France, Italy and Portugal, although they will increase in Ireland, Norway and Sweden.

“Deaths in Europe from high and low temperatures will increase substantially, as many more heat-related deaths are projected to occur as the climate warms and populations age, while deaths from cold are only slightly declining in comparison,” said David García-León of the European Commission’s Joint Research Centre.