The chances of asteroid YR4 impacting Earth are increasing: where and when could it fall?

NASA has raised the impact probabilities of asteroid 2024 YR4, a space object that has captured the attention of astronomers and space agencies since its discovery in December 2024. According to the latest estimates, the risk of collision has increased to 3.1%, which is equivalent to a 1 in 32 chance of the asteroid hitting Earth.

The discovery of this asteroid generated great concern among specialists due to its size and trajectory, as it has an estimated diameter of between 40 and 100 meters. Unlike other near-Earth objects, 2024 YR4 has maintained a relatively high probability of impact, which has led space agencies to constantly monitor its evolution. As calculations are refined, it is expected to determine with greater precision whether the threat will decrease or increase in the coming years.

NASA estimates that asteroid YR4 is at risk of impact

Since its detection with the ATLAS telescope in Chile, asteroid 2024 YR4 has been the subject of intense monitoring. In the first assessments, the probability of impact was 1.2%, a figure that has increased as new observations have been made. NASA currently estimates that the risk of collision has reached 3.1%, making this the first large asteroid with a probability of impact greater than 1% at present.

The European Space Agency (ESA) has also revised its calculations to put the probability of impact at 2.8%. Despite the increase in estimates, scientists insist that the probability of the asteroid not impacting remains at 96.9%.

Asteroid 2024 YR4 has been classified as having a score of 3 on the Turin Scale, an indicator that measures the danger of near-Earth objects (NEOs). This rating is exceptional, as it is only awarded when the probability of impact exceeds 1% and the object measures more than 20 meters in diameter.

WHERE IS THE ASTEROID AND WHEN COULD IT FALL?

Currently, asteroid 2024 YR4 is 80 million kilometres from Earth. Among the areas where it could impact are the eastern Pacific Ocean, which could generate megatsunamis affecting the coasts of South America, North America and Asia; northern South America, including Colombia, Venezuela and Ecuador; the Atlantic Ocean, where an impact could alter marine ecosystems and cause high waves; western and central Africa, with a risk for countries such as Nigeria, Cameroon and the Democratic Republic of the Congo; the Arabian Sea and southern Asia, affecting India, Pakistan and Bangladesh. Due to its speed and trajectory, it is moving away progressively and, in a few weeks, it will pass behind the Sun, which will make it impossible to observe with terrestrial telescopes.

It is expected to approach Earth again in 2028, as its orbit around the Sun has a period of four years. During this time, the James Webb Space Telescope will be the only one able to follow its movement until May of this year.
Scientists have identified up to seven possible impacts of the asteroid between 2032 and 2079, according to National Geographic. However, it should be noted that the probabilities could decrease with future observations.

CONSEQUENCES OF THE IMPACT

If asteroid 2024 YR4 were to hit Earth, the consequences would depend on the location of the impact. The energy released at the moment of impact is estimated at 8 megatons, enough to cause serious damage to population centers. According to National Geographic, up to 500 times the energy of the atomic bomb dropped on Hiroshima (Japan) would be released. 

Despite the increased probability of impact, NASA insists that there is still a considerable margin of uncertainty. Most asteroids with an initial risk tend to see their collision probabilities reduced as new measurements are obtained. However, 2024 YR4 remains an object of priority interest for the scientific community, due to the possibility of affecting inhabited areas if it were to impact.